Insights for professional partners

Trade wars continue to cloud the outlook for businesses and consumers. Closer to home, Brexit uncertainty has gone from bad to worse. Our new Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s first few weeks in office have been pretty spectacular.

We’re spending more time than ever before shopping through our smartphones and laptops rather than braving multi-storey car parks and crowded high streets. 

A broader swathe of economic indicators — of the recent past, present and future — have fallen to indisputably weaker levels than at any time since the 2008 global financial crisis. That means we have more reasons than at any time over the past decade to be worried about the outlook for the US and global economies over the next 12 months.

When the pace of economic growth begins to slow and the outlook becomes more gloomy, it makes sense for investors to start shifting their equity investments away from cyclical sectors and towards defensive ones, even if you don’t think a recession is necessarily likely to ensue.

While the Brexit deadline draws closer, the route to a deal between the UK and the European Union (EU) shows no signs of materialising.